e-Bulletin April 2026

Beyond the Pandemic
Latest Study Uncovers Striking Disparities in Post COVID-19 Mortality Trends

Did the world truly return to pre-pandemic mortality patterns after COVID-19? A global study by Ms Chen Xinyi, Research Postgraduate student at our School, alongside Professor David Bishai and Professor Ben Cowling, offers a compelling answer. Analysing over 352 million deaths across 34 countries from 2015 to 2024, the team examined whether mortality patterns have returned to pre-pandemic norms, and the findings reveal a complex and uneven recovery.

The study found that only three countries—Greece, Latvia, and Poland—showed evidence of mortality displacement, a phenomenon where deaths occurred earlier during the pandemic, leading to post-pandemic mortality declines. In contrast, the United States returned to normal mortality patterns by 2024. However, most European countries have not yet recovered, continuing to experience higher than expected deaths compared to pre-pandemic trends.

The findings suggest that pandemic strategies should prioritise population-wide protection rather than narrowly focused interventions. They also underscore the urgent need to understand why many European countries have failed to resume their pre‑COVID‑19 pattern of mortality decline—a question that warrants further investigation.

The findings have now been published in JAMA Network Open. Click here to view the publication.